Tuesday, May 27, 2008

NBA rates well nationally.

Games 3 and 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals gave ESPN and ABC solid ratings over the weekend.

Game 3 between the Celtics and Pistons drew a 4.6 overnight on ABC, up 21% from a 3.8 for Spurs/Jazz Game 3 last year. The 4.6 overnight is the highest ABC has ever drawn for a Saturday night game. If the rating holds, Game 3 will be the highest rated non-Finals prime time game on ABC since Game 4 of the 2006 East Finals between Heat and Pistons.

In Detroit, Game 3 drew a 12.6 rating, compared to an 8.4 for Game 1 of the Red Wings' Stanley Cup Finals on Versus.

Game 4 between the same two teams drew a 5.0 overnight on ESPN last night, up 35% from a 3.7 for Spurs/Jazz Game 4 last year.

Edited to fix mistake; Game 3 would be the highest rated prime time game since 2006, not 2005.

Pistons the top draw on Saturday night.

For at least one night, Hockeytown took a backseat to Dee-troit Basketball.

The Pistons' Eastern Conference Final went head to head with the Red Wings' Stanley Cup Final on Saturday night, with the former winning the ratings battle easily.

Game 3 of the Celtics/Pistons Eastern Conference Final drew a 12.6 rating on ABC in Detroit, 50% higher than the 8.4 rating for Game 1 of the Penguins/Red Wings Stanley Cup Final on Versus.

Much of the gap in ratings can be attributed to Celtics/Pistons airing on an over-the-air network (ABC) and Penguins/Red Wings airing on a cable network with limited distribution (Versus).

Yesterday, the Pistons and Red Wings went head to head again, with both games airing on cable. Game 4 of the Celtics/Pistons series on ESPN drew a 16.0 in Detroit. Ratings for Game 2 of the Penguins/Red Wings series are unavailable.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Pens/Wings Game 1 sees 157% increase.

The Stanley Cup Finals got off to a roaring start last night.

Game 1 between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings drew a 1.8 cable rating and 2.3 million viewers on Versus Saturday night, tying Game 2 of the Penguins/Flyers series as the second highest rated sporting event in network history.

The 1.8 rating for the game is up 157% from last year, and marks the highest rating for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals since 2002.

Earlier this month, the aforementioned Game 2 between the Penguins and Flyers drew a 1.8 rating with 2.4 million viewers on Versus.

Saturday night is not alright.

Saturday night is a dead zone for a reason.

ABC averaged a mere 4.3 million viewers in prime time for its coverage of Celtics/Pistons Game 3, according to preliminary numbers. That includes the half-hour NBA Countdown pregame show. ABC finished second for the night behind CBS.

For only one half hour -- 9:00 PM to 9:30 PM -- was Celtics/Pistons Game 3 the most watched program on broadcast. The rest of the night saw programs like Vinegar Hill, COPS and 48 Hours Mystery take the top spot. The game peaked from 10:00 PM - 10:30 PM, drawing 5.1 million viewers.

ABC did win the night among adults 18-49, drawing a 1.6/6 in the demographic.

The poor performance of Celtics/Pistons Game 3 comes in stark contrast to Games 1 and 2, which drew decent numbers on ESPN. Game 1 on Tuesday night drew 5.4 million viewers, while Game 2 on Thursday drew 5.7 million. Despite airing on a broadcast network, Game 3 will likely finish with a much smaller audience.

In the past, ABC aired its lone Conference Final game on Memorial Day. In 2005, Suns/Spurs Game 4 drew a solid 7.1 million viewers, and in 2006, Pistons/Heat Game 4 drew 8.2 million. Since ABC began airing its Conference Final game on the Saturday night before Memorial Day, neither game (Spurs/Jazz Game 3 last year and Celtics/Pistons Game 3 last night) has drawn 5 million viewers.

If the NBA and ESPN are smart, ABC will get the Memorial Day game next season.

More on Walton absence.

It is not often that announcers suffer season ending injuries. However, it is beginning to look very likely that Bill Walton will miss the NBA Finals this year, thanks to back and hip problems that have kept him off the air for three months.

Fellow ESPN colleague Bill Plaschke recently wrote a piece in the Los Angeles Times detailing what Walton has gone through in recent weeks.

Walton "recently spent much of an entire month lying on the floor of his San Diego home in agony." His son, the Lakers' Luke Walton, told Plaschke that Walton went through a period where "he would get up at 5 in the morning, roll over on the floor, and stay there the rest of the day ... He couldn't do anything."

The loquacious NBA analyst originally suffered the injury after the All Star Break. Luke says his father was "trying to get off the plane from Connecticut but couldn't stand up."

Since then, Walton has been off the air, replaced by Jon Barry on ABC's pregame show. The likelihood now is that Barry will continue as ABC's studio analyst through the NBA Finals. And considering that Barry was also the studio analyst for last year's NBA Finals, ESPN/ABC may decide to have some much needed consistency by keeping Barry in that role next season as well.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Video of the day.

Is a Time Warner/NBC Universal merger in the works?

Rumors are swirling that Time Warner could merge with NBC Universal, in a deal that would have major ramifications on the media landscape.

Time Warner has announced plans to spin off its cable division, and could potentially "[sell] AOL's nuts and bolts business", becoming a "more narrow", "slimmed-down, content-centric" company. Meanwhile, General Electric has been long rumored to be considering "spinning off its entertainment properties", or NBC Universal. GE has been encouraged to spin off NBCU, which does not mesh well with the corporation's other operations.

CNBC's Julia Boorstin writes that Time Warner is "considered the front runner to merge with NBC Universal, since other than their movie studios and their cable news channels (CNN and MSNBC) their content properties are almost entirely complimentary."

For sports fans, one result of the potential merger would be that NBC Sports and Turner Sports, which have worked closely together on NBA and NASCAR telecasts in the past, would be under the same umbrella.

What would that mean? Turner could get part of future Olympics -- potentially even replacing USA Network, which appears reluctant to preempt its regularly scheduled line-up -- while baseball, NASCAR and NBA broadcasts would see some NBC Sports influence. Sporting events on USA, NBC's current cable sibling, have used NBC Sports graphics in the past; one imagines a similar arrangement would be worked out under any hypothetical merger.

NBC Sports personalities could end up appearing on Turner Sports properties and vice versa. Bob Costas was once rumored to be part of TBS' baseball coverage, denying interest because NBC and HBO are "where my loyalties are and that’s what viewers associate me with." If NBC and Turner Sports were corporate siblings, perhaps Costas would consider it less of an act of disloyalty to make a return to the booth.

A merger could also make it easier for Turner/NBC Sports to bid on major broadcast packages. With a broadcast network partner (NBC), Turner could get its hands on the World Series or NBA Finals.

Of course, this is all very premature. GE CEO Jeffery Immelt "reaffirmed yet again this week that he is still pleased with NBCU." That being said, the possibilities generated from such a merger are intriguing.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Question of the day.

Weekend ratings predictions.

First, the results of last week's predictions.

  • NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Celtics. Prediction: 5.7. Final rating: 5.7. Game 7 between the Cavaliers and Celtics drew a strong 5.7 rating on ABC last Sunday, up 84% from a 3.1 for Jazz/Spurs Game 1 last year. Compared to Cavaliers/Pistons Game 7 two years ago, however, the rating was down 6%. The game finished as the highest rated, most watched sporting event of the weekend, averaging nearly 800,000 more viewers than The Preakness Stakes on NBC.
  • Horse racing on NBC, The Preakness Stakes. Prediction: 6.7. Final rating: 5.5. Ratings for The Preakness were down 4% from last year, despite the presence of Triple Crown hopeful Big Brown.
  • NHL on NBC, Stars/Red Wings. Prediction: 1.0. Final rating: 1.1. Game 5 between the Red Wings and Stars drew a relatively decent audience on NBC. The 1.1 rating marks a 22% increase from a 0.9 for Senators/Sabres last year.
  • NHL on NBC, Flyers/Penguins. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.4. The 1.4 rating for the Penguins series clinching win over the Flyers is even with Ducks/Red Wings Game 5 last year, but the 2.5 million viewers is the most for a non-Finals NHL Playoff game since 2002.
  • WNBA on ABC, Sparks/Mercury. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 0.8. Candace Parker and the big market Los Angeles Sparks helped the WNBA to a big increase in ratings. The 0.8 final rating for Sparks/Mercury last Saturday was up 60% from a 0.5 for Monarchs/Shock last year. In New York, the game outdrew the competing Stars/Red Wings game on NBC.
  • MLB on ESPN, Yankees/Mets. Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 2.3. ESPN drew a solid audience for the Subway Series last Sunday night, but the Mets' win over the Yankees was down 4% in ratings and total viewers, and off 12% in the key men 18-34 demographic.



This week's predictions:


  • NBA on ABC, Celtics/Pistons, 8:30 PM Saturday -- Saturday night is not very conducive to good ratings. ABC has averaged a mere 3.2 rating for the five Saturday night NBA games it has aired in the past six years. Last year, Game 3 between the Spurs and Jazz drew a 3.1, tied as lowest rating ever for a Conference Final game on broadcast. While Celtics/Pistons figures to fare better, do not expect huge numbers.Prediction: 3.8.
  • NHL on Versus, Penguins/Red Wings, 8 PM Saturday -- Arguably, this match-up is more important to the NHL than Celtics/Lakers would be to the NBA. Sidney Crosby and the Penguins versus the perennial contenders in Detroit. While this game should get blown out by Celtics/Pistons nationally, look for Game 1 to draw the biggest audience in Versus history. Prediction: 1.7.
  • IRL on ABC, Indianapolis 500, 1 PM Sunday -- Open wheel racing is having a good year. The IRL and Champ Car finally unified, and Danica Patrick has been in the news after she finally won a race. Now comes the true test of the IRL's popularity: can the Indy 500 reverse the trend of declining ratings? Last year's rain soaked race drew a 4.3 final rating. Prediction: 4.9.
  • NASCAR on FOX, Coca Cola 600, 5 PM Sunday -- Last year, the Coca Cola 600 beat the Indy 500 head to head for the first time in three years. While there is little question NASCAR is far more popular than the IRL, look for the Coca Cola 600 to settle for second place this weekend. Last year, the race drew a 4.5 rating. Prediction: 4.7.
  • NBA on TNT, Lakers/Spurs, 8:30 PM Sunday -- The Lakers are always a big draw. Game 1 of their series against the San Antonio Spurs was the highest rated Western Conference Final game since Game 6 of the Mavericks/Suns series two years ago. Expect Game 5 to put up impressive numbers on Sunday night. Prediction: 4.3.

More high marks for NHL on NBC.

The Stanley Cup Finals start tomorrow, and Versus and NBC can only hope that the NHL can keep up its ratings momentum.

Last Sunday's deciding Game 5 of the Flyers/Penguins East Final drew 2.5 million viewers on NBC, the most for an NHL playoff telecast on broadcast since May 18, 2002, excluding the Finals.

The game finished with a 1.4 rating, even with last year's Ducks/Red Wings Game 5.

On Saturday, Game 5 of the Red Wings/Stars series drew a 1.1 on NBC, up 22% from a 0.9 for Senators/Sabres in '07. For the weekend, NBC averaged a 1.3 rating for NHL Conference Final games, up 8% from a 1.2 last year.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

The ratings game.

  • The Lakers' presence helped boost the numbers for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. TNT drew 6.2 million viewers for the Lakers' Game 1 victory over San Antonio, the largest audience for any NBA Playoff game on cable this year. Compared to Game 1 of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, which TNT televised exclusively, the 6.2 million viewers is up 59%.
  • The UEFA Champions League Final drew impressive numbers on ESPN2 and ESPN Deportes yesterday afternoon. ESPN2 drew a 0.8 rating with 1.1 million viewers for the match between Chelsea and Manchester United, making it the highest rated, most viewed UEFA telecast in network history. Combined with the audience from ESPN Deportes, the match drew 1.3 million viewers.
  • Last Saturday's NASCAR All Star Race brought Speed Channel its largest ever audience. Speed drew a 2.5 national rating and a network record 4.2 million viewers for the race, up 14% and 11% from a 2.2 rating and 3.8 million viewers last year.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Lotto winnings.

The NBA Draft Lottery and Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals proved to be a winning combination for ESPN Tuesday night.

The Draft Lottery drew a 2.1 cable rating and 2 million households yesterday, making it the highest rated, most viewed Draft Lottery ever on ESPN. The previous record was set last year, when Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were up for grabs.

More impressive were the numbers for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics' Game 1 win over the Pistons drew a 4.4 cable rating and 5.4 million viewers, up 57% and 59% respectively from a 2.8 rating with 3.4 million viewers for the comparable Jazz/Spurs Game 2 last year. The 4.4 rating is the highest for Game 1 of a Conference Final since Heat/Pistons Game 1 drew a 4.5 on ESPN two years ago.

Only two Conference Finals games last year (Games 5 and 6 of the Cavaliers/Pistons series) drew better numbers than Game 1.

Click.

For the past several years, the ESPN brand has been put on everything from cellphones to weekends. Now, the ubiquitous sports entity is placing its name on a device that its target audience simply cannot live without -- the remote control.

ESPN is debuting ESPN The Ultimate Remote just in time for Father's Day. The remote does more than simply switching the channel from ESPN to ABC and back to ESPN. Fans can access sports scores and information, in addition to "one-touch access to a weather widget, mobile Internet browsing, email and text messaging, mobile Internet and entertainment search content."

Whether the Ultimate Remote will be more successful than the infamous ESPN Mobile remains to be seen.

The remote appears far too complex for its own good. While the goal is to "[simplify] advanced home theater equipment operation", one look at the "how to" page on the espnremote.com website makes it easy to forecast many Father's Day headaches.

Good Lord (Stanley).

After three years of anonymous small market teams playing equally anonymous Canadian teams (at least anonymous on this side of the border), the NHL is looking at its most marketable Stanley Cup Final in recent memory.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Sidney Crosby, the biggest star in the NHL, will take on the venerable Detroit Red Wings starting Saturday night. With ratings already up dramatically this year, including a 77% increase for Conference Final games on Versus, these Stanley Cup Finals have the potential to be the highest rated in at least six years.

The last time the NHL had a final featuring a traditional power was in 2002, when the Red Wings beat the Carolina Hurricanes. Though the series only lasted five games, the ratings were superb by today's standards. Games 1 and 2 on ESPN drew final national ratings of 2.3 and 2.6, and ABC drew a 3.3, 3.5 and 4.2 for the three remaining games.

While Red Wings/Penguins would appear to be an even better match-up, odds are that the ratings will not be quite that high. Most sporting events would have trouble reaching the numbers they achieved six years ago, and the NHL is no exception. Even though ratings are up dramatically this year, NBC would be satisfied with ratings in the 2.2 to 2.8 range.

Regardless of whether how high or low the ratings are for this marquee series, the NHL and NBC are virtually guaranteed a double digit increase in ratings. Last year's Ducks/Senators series averaged a mere 1.6 for the three games on NBC, meaning Penguins/Red Wings only needs to average a 2.0 to see a solid 25% increase. Even a mere 1.8 average would equal a 13% increase.

One factor that could hurt ratings is a major scheduling conflict. Games 1 and 2 of the series will take place on Saturday and Monday in Detroit -- at the same time as Games 3 and 4 of the Celtics/Pistons NBA Eastern Conference Final. That could cannibalize the ratings in Detroit for both series -- but more so for the Red Wings.

Because both Red Wings games will be on Versus, while the Pistons games will be on ABC Saturday and ESPN Monday, there is a likelihood that the Pistons will win the ratings battle. Already in the playoffs, four Pistons/Magic second round games averaged a 10.5 on TNT, while five Red Wings/Stars Conference Final games averaged a 9.8 on Versus.

That being said, there is little doubt who will win the ratings battle next Wednesday; Game 3 of the Cup Finals will air on broadcast (NBC) in Detroit, while a potential Game 5 of Pistons/Celtics would air on cable (ESPN).

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

NBA Playoffs dominate cable.

The NBA dominated cable last week, as playoff games were the seven highest rated programs of the week.

All but one of the NBA Playoff games televised last week finished with at least a 3.0 national rating and 4 million viewers. NBA Playoff games were the only programs on cable last week to finish with at least a 3.0 national rating. The lone dud was Pistons/Magic Game 5, which finished #40 for the week with 2.8 million viewers.

Cavaliers/Celtics Game 5 and Jazz/Lakers Game 5, both televised by TNT last Wednesday, finished in a tie for the top spot. Both games drew a 3.6 rating, up 71% and 9% respectively from last year's comparable doubleheader featuring Nets/Cavaliers and Spurs/Suns.

Both games also finished as the only programs on cable to draw more than 5 million viewers last week. Jazz/Lakers averaged 5.5 million, and Cavaliers/Celtics drew 5.4.

Two more Cavaliers/Celtics games finished #3 and #4 for the week. Game 6 of the series drew a 3.3 rating with 4.9 million viewers on ESPN Friday night, up 120% from a 1.5 for Cavaliers/Nets Game 6 last year. Game 4 drew a 3.3 with 4.8 million on TNT Monday, up 10% from Suns/Spurs Game 4.

Three Western Conference games round out the top seven, with Lakers/Jazz Game 6 drawing a 3.2 on ESPN Friday, and Spurs/Hornets Games 5 and 6 averaging ratings of 3.1 and 3.0 on TNT Tuesday and ESPN Thursday, respectively.

Overall, eight NBA Playoff games averaged a 3.1 national rating on cable last week, up 24% from a 2.5 average for nine games during the comparable week last year.

On a related note, Cavaliers/Celtics Game 7 finished with a 5.7 national rating and 8.7 million viewers on ABC Sunday afternoon, up 84% and 98%, respectively, from a 3.1 with 4.4 million for Jazz/Spurs last year. Compared to Cavaliers/Pistons Game 7 two years ago, the game was down 7% in ratings and 1% in total viewers.

Ratings for NBA Playoff games on cable last week
.
3.3: Celtics/Cavaliers Game 4 (Mon., 5/12, 8 PM TNT); up 10% from PHX/SA Gm 4 in '07.
2.0: Magic/Pistons Game 5 (Tue., 5/13, 7 PM TNT); down 13% from CHI/DET Gm 5 in '07.
3.1: Spurs/Hornets Game 5 (Tue., 5/13, 9:30 PM TNT); up 7% from GS/UTA Gm 5 in '07.
3.6: Cavaliers/Celtics Game 5 (Wed., 5/14, 8 PM TNT); up 71% from NJ/CLE Gm 5 in '07.
3.6: Jazz/Lakers Game 5 (Wed., 5/14, 10:30 PM TNT); up 9% from SA/PHX Gm 5 in '07.
3.0: Hornets/Spurs Game 6 (Thu., 5/15, 9 PM ESPN); up 20% from DET/CHI Gm 6 in '07.
3.3: Celtics/Cavaliers Game 6 (Fri., 5/16, 8 PM ESPN); up 120% from CLE/NJ Gm 6 in '07.
3.2: Lakers/Jazz Game 6 (Fri., 5/16, 10:30 PM ESPN); up 3% from PHX/SA Gm 6 in '07.

Magic/Pistons ratings/viewers data courtesy Robert Seidman.

Weekend ratings.

Overnight ratings for sporting events on broadcast.
*excluding events on FOX.

Basketball.
6.9: NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Celtics (3:30 PM Sunday)
2.2: NBA Countdown on ABC (3 PM Sunday)
0.9: WNBA on ABC, Sparks/Mercury (3:30 PM Saturday)

  • Game 7 of the Celtics/Cavaliers series drew the fifth-highest overnight for an NBA game on ABC, excluding the NBA Finals. The 6.9 is up 82% from a 3.8 for Jazz/Spurs Game 1 last year, and up 3% from Cavaliers/Pistons Game 7 two years ago. The game also drew the highest overnight of any sporting event for the weekend, surpassing The Preakness on NBC.
  • The WNBA season opener saw a 50% jump, thanks in part to much hyped rookie Candace Parker. The 0.9 overnight for Parker's debut against Diana Taurasi and the defending champion Mercury is the highest for a season opener since 2004.

Horse racing.
6.2/14: The Preakness on NBC, race portion (5:45 PM Saturday)
5.1/12: The Preakness on NBC, total coverage (5 PM Saturday)
1.9/5: State of Horse Racing panel discussion on NBC (4:30 PM Saturday)

  • Ratings for the second leg in the Triple Crown declined slightly from last year. The 6.2 for NBC's coverage of the actual race marks a 3% drop from a 6.4 last year. Meanwhile, the 5.1 for total coverage of the event marks a 6% decline.

Hockey.
1.7/4: NHL on NBC, Flyers/Penguins (3 PM Sunday)
1.5/4: NHL on NBC, Stars/Red Wings (1:30 PM Saturday)

  • The NHL saw a decent boost on NBC over the weekend. Stars/Red Wings on Saturday saw a 25% jump over the comparable Sabres/Senators game a year earlier, while Flyers/Penguins on Sunday saw a 6% increase. For the weekend, NBC averaged a 1.6 overnight for NHL coverage, up 14% from a 1.4 last year.

Golf.
1.8/4: PGA on CBS, AT&T Classic, Final Round (3 PM Sunday)
1.2/3: PGA on CBS, AT&T Classic, Third Round (3 PM Saturday)
0.4/1: Technology and Golf on CBS (2 PM Saturday)

  • Ratings for the final round AT&T Classic were down double-digits. The 1.8 overnight for final round coverage marks a 10% decline from a 2.0 last year. CBS' two day coverage of the event averaged a 1.5 overnight, down 7% from a 1.6 last year.

Other
.
1.3/3: National Heads-Up Poker Tournament on NBC (12 PM Sunday)
1.3: IRL on ABC, Indianapolis 500 Bump Day (1 PM Sunday)

  • Coverage of Indianapolis 500 Bump Day drew a 1.3 overnight on ABC Sunday afternoon, up 18% from a 1.1 last year.