Good Lord (Stanley).
After three years of anonymous small market teams playing equally anonymous Canadian teams (at least anonymous on this side of the border), the NHL is looking at its most marketable Stanley Cup Final in recent memory.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Sidney Crosby, the biggest star in the NHL, will take on the venerable Detroit Red Wings starting Saturday night. With ratings already up dramatically this year, including a 77% increase for Conference Final games on Versus, these Stanley Cup Finals have the potential to be the highest rated in at least six years.
The last time the NHL had a final featuring a traditional power was in 2002, when the Red Wings beat the Carolina Hurricanes. Though the series only lasted five games, the ratings were superb by today's standards. Games 1 and 2 on ESPN drew final national ratings of 2.3 and 2.6, and ABC drew a 3.3, 3.5 and 4.2 for the three remaining games.
While Red Wings/Penguins would appear to be an even better match-up, odds are that the ratings will not be quite that high. Most sporting events would have trouble reaching the numbers they achieved six years ago, and the NHL is no exception. Even though ratings are up dramatically this year, NBC would be satisfied with ratings in the 2.2 to 2.8 range.
Regardless of whether how high or low the ratings are for this marquee series, the NHL and NBC are virtually guaranteed a double digit increase in ratings. Last year's Ducks/Senators series averaged a mere 1.6 for the three games on NBC, meaning Penguins/Red Wings only needs to average a 2.0 to see a solid 25% increase. Even a mere 1.8 average would equal a 13% increase.
One factor that could hurt ratings is a major scheduling conflict. Games 1 and 2 of the series will take place on Saturday and Monday in Detroit -- at the same time as Games 3 and 4 of the Celtics/Pistons NBA Eastern Conference Final. That could cannibalize the ratings in Detroit for both series -- but more so for the Red Wings.
Because both Red Wings games will be on Versus, while the Pistons games will be on ABC Saturday and ESPN Monday, there is a likelihood that the Pistons will win the ratings battle. Already in the playoffs, four Pistons/Magic second round games averaged a 10.5 on TNT, while five Red Wings/Stars Conference Final games averaged a 9.8 on Versus.
That being said, there is little doubt who will win the ratings battle next Wednesday; Game 3 of the Cup Finals will air on broadcast (NBC) in Detroit, while a potential Game 5 of Pistons/Celtics would air on cable (ESPN).
12 comments:
Tough call for NHL. Either schedule the Finals against a Pistons series or against the nationally higher rated Lakers series. They should have at least tried to mix up the dates a bit so Detroit fans don't have to choose.
It was scheduled the way it was for the league's tv partners. Specifically CBC the league's Canadian TV partner of 50+ years. Saturday night is the traditional Hockey Night in Canada night and as such the league tries to schedule as many Saturday Night games as possible in the final (in addition NBC wants Saturday night games as well).
As for the Monday and Wednesday game my guess is NBC does not want to give up their Tuesday and Thursday programming and that forces games on Monday and Wednesday so there isn't games on back to back nights.
As for ratings another thing that will hurt Versus is that because Detroit is on the border that they have access to CBC which provides a higher standard broadcast than Versus. Some may watch the game on CBC rather than Versus.
Dumb move by the NHL...AGAIN. 50% of their ratings will come from Detroit fans most likely. I wouldn't worry about the Lakers games. Those games will start at 9:30. Start the SCF games at 7:30 and their would be no problem. No one is going to watch the first quarter of a basketball game if they are interested in a hockey game as well.
Actually many people in Detroit (and also Buffalo and Seattle) watch games on CBC rather than Versus or NBS. Definitely enough to push the 9.8 rating past the 10.5 of the Pistons.
well, the Pistons games vs. Orlando (and also vs Philly in the 1st round) were shown not only on TNT, but also on FSN Detroit and Mytv20. Pistons games on FSN Detroit/Mytv20 usually get pretty big ratings, so the 10.5 doesn't take in consideration all those people who didn't watch the games on TNT and ESPN.
I'm pretty sure the NHL schedule its finals way before they knew the Pistons would be in the Eastern Conference finals. I don't think it'll hurt ratings that much...people can't flip channels and watch two games at once?
The NHL shouldn't bend for the other leagues unless its something pretty obvious like the super bowl. People just like to find any excuse to rag on the nhl.
The Detroit market should be blacked out of the CBC coverage and forced to watch Versus' coverge. No one else gets to choose from 2 different feeds, so why should they? This will also provide a better rating.
The question is, why did the NBA schedule Detroit games at times they knew it would probably go up against the Red Wings in the finals?
Hmm...anyone know if CBC can be received over-the-air in Detroit? It's one thing if it's on their cable system (easy to black out) but if a nearby CBC OTA signal happens to penetrate into the Detroit area that's a little trickier.
I'm pretty sure Windsor, just across the water from Detroit, is considered large enough for CBC to have an affiliate there.
Morgan, the NBA set the conference finals schedule last summer. How could they know the Red Wings were going to play in the stanley cup finals the same day of the nba conference finals? The NBA is not at fault here. The schedule was set last summer. And I am pretty much sure also the NHL schedule was set last summer. Let's be honest here: those leagues didn't do it on purpose to schedule pistons and red wings playoffs games the same day. It's just bad luck. Nothing you can do about it. Besides, it's not the first time Pistons and Wings play playoffs games the same day. It's happened the same thing last year and in 2006.
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